Donald Trump’s triumph over the Supreme Court
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Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown! A programming note: there will be no newsletter on July 4 as we celebrate the country’s birthday. But before we throw the veggie (at least for your vegetarian newsletter writer) burgers and hot dogs on the grill, let’s talk about:
Presidential immunity
Anger with Biden’s inner circle
Our new ad tracker
In a historic decision, the US Supreme Court has ruled that US presidents are immune from certain criminal prosecutions.
With a 6-3 majority, justices gave Donald Trump broad protection against criminal prosecution with their ruling that the former president should be shielded from prosecution for “official acts”.
And it’s not just Trump who will benefit — future presidents will get these protections, too [free to read].
The former president immediately declared victory on Truth Social: “BIG WIN FOR OUR CONSTITUTION AND DEMOCRACY. PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN!”
In a blistering dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote that the decision “makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our constitution and system of government, that no man is above the law”, adding that she fears for US democracy.
However, in the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts did write that “the president enjoys no immunity for his unofficial acts, and not everything the president does is official. The president is not above the law.”
The lower courts now get to decide what constitutes a personal versus official act — a process that will take a while. This means that the chance of getting a verdict in Trump’s federal election interference case before November 5 has been all but eliminated — a big political win for Trump.
“Thursday, Friday and Monday combined have been the best three days of the Trump campaign so far,” Republican party operative Ford O’Connell told the FT’s Lauren Fedor. “Thursday night was a political earthquake. And what has happened since has just given Trump even more momentum.”
Joe Biden’s disastrous performance during Thursday’s night debate sent the Democratic party into a panic over whether they have the right candidate at the top of the ticket. The president is facing intense pressure to step aside. A new poll showed that almost three-quarters of US voters think he lacks the cognitive and mental abilities to stay in office. His wealthy backers are also divided over what to do.
Campaign clips: the latest election headlines
Biden’s campaign has said it raised $264mn in the second quarter of 2024, tens of millions more than in the previous three months.
Merck chief executive Kenneth Frazier said that US business leaders must consider the “existential threat” that a second Trump term would pose to democracy and the economy.
Should Biden step down, here’s how an open Democratic convention [free to read] could unfold to pick a replacement.
With Trump confidante Steve Bannon now in prison, here’s a round-up of all the ex-president’s aides in legal peril.
Biden’s disastrous debate performance has jolted Europe’s anxiety at the prospect of a second Trump presidency.
Behind the scenes
Democratic insiders are getting angry with the president’s family and trusted confidantes — particularly the first lady — for hiding Biden’s weakened state and spurning calls for him to bow out of the race.
There’s a growing belief among many party donors, consultants and operatives that a younger candidate should replace Biden on the ticket. As the FT’s Josh Chaffin, Lauren Fedor and Demetri Sevastopulo put it:
Those same figures expressed exasperation that only first lady Jill Biden, the president’s sister Valerie and a group of aides who have supported Biden for decades have the ability to prevail upon him to bow out — something they have so far appeared unwilling to do.
The result is that the party is now in crisis just over four months before election day.
“There seems to be a level of anger that the inner circle has been keeping things from all of us,” a veteran Democratic operative told them, noting that many in the party were irritated that the Biden team had not been more transparent about the president’s enfeebled condition.
“Who really enabled this to go on for a year? Was it the staff? Was it the family?” asked one consultant who advises several large New York donors. “I think they all deserve blame.”
But the first lady is defiant: she told Vogue on Sunday that the Biden family “will not let those 90 minutes define the four years he’s been president. We will continue to fight.”
Datapoints
I’m happy to introduce you to the FT’s ad tracker! This new feature, which updates multiple times a day, monitors the ad battle in real time, with data from tracking company AdImpact. It charts and maps exactly how much is being spent, where and when.
Our ad tracker also encompasses spending from the campaigns or aligned groups such as “super Pacs” and “joint fundraising committees”, and tells us what their total general election advert expenditures are to date.
Both Biden and Trump are expected to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on TV, radio and online advertisements, particularly in swing states.
As of this morning, Biden has spent almost $253mn on ads, with $102mn coming directly from his campaign. Trump groups have spent just over $86mn, though his campaign has spent less than $300,000 as they’ve just started catching up with Biden on fundraising.
Both candidates are focusing a huge chunk of their ad buys on Pennsylvania, one of the most critical battleground states in the race. Biden has spent $55mn, with Trump close behind at $51.9mn.
Interestingly, the only other state in which Trump seems particularly interested in buying ads is Georgia, where he has spent $14.8mn. Biden has spent $30.2mn there.
The president has spent $42mn on national ads compared with his predecessor’s $18.7mn.
Viewpoints
Peter Spiegel says the Supreme Court has given us another reason to fear a Trumpian return.
The latest FT Swamp Notes newsletter, Rana Foroohar and Peter debate who should replace Biden on the Democratic ticket [Available for Premium subscribers]. Edward Luce thinks he should go, too.
Rana also notes that, unusually, politics is a top board concern among CEOs these days.
Crypto lobbyists are polluting the US election, says Jemima Kelly.
Patti Waldmeir spoke to some of the few Americans who watched last week’s debate sitting shoulder to shoulder with their deepest political rivals.
Biden is too frail to continue his bid in this alarming moment for US democracy, according to the FT editorial board, which has joined the media chorus calling for him to step aside. (FT, New York Times)
Jay Caspian Kang makes the case for Biden staying in the race. (The New Yorker)
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